How air strike could be ordered today ?

Why air strike could be ordered?

Today, Indian Airforce carried airstrikes across LoC and Border, over Terrorist camps in Pakistan and PoK. This is an unprecedented retaliatory action by Indian forces. More than 40 of our brave paramilitary soldiers were charred to death in a terrorist bomb attack in Pulwama.

What factors went behind this unprecedented strike ? How could India act in a way it has almost never done before ? This article is an attempt to suggest some possibilities. The reasons of what apparently seems a political or military action, may actually be rooted in the changing social landscape.

Some of these possibilities which created conditions for an attack were -  

1)      Expansion of 24 X 7 News Channel and Media.  TRP hungry media creates Hype and Hopes.

TV News Channel and Media have become part of our study rooms, kitchens and bedrooms.

2)      Social Media – Facebook, Twitter, YouTube,

a.       Everyone has a smartphone, and internet connections, See Live feeds

b.       Virtual communities, people see images and videos of the widows and children of those killed.

Thus public is stirred emotionally at a faster pace than it earlier could be. It has higher levels of anger. Secondly,  faster means of network and communication, enables transferring of pressure on the government.

3)      General Elections just a few weeks from now.

All above factors create immense pressure on the government to react, and demonstrate that it has a desire, will and ability to reacted punitively..

There is a big difference between war, IPL and cinema. We expect our Politicians to react the way we expect batsman to hit sixers and centuries in a T20 – cricket match. In this age of hyperreality, we have got confused between real and virtual world. 

              So called reality shows on TV like BigBoss, Roadies are deemed to be real, and some thing as real as death, their life, their blood, a war , the anti-terror operations are supposed to be executed  like script of a movie.

              The way we consume Cinema, and TV shows, the same we want to be fed with news related to military strikes.

              In a virtual game like PubG, when you get killed , there is some fellow player to revive you, or you get another chance to play, but when a soldier dies in combat, he doesn’t get a second life, his family doesn’t get a new son.

              It’s not just about being concerned with the safety of the nation, because it were only about safety of nation, then we should have given breathing space to our forces and our leadership, so that they can attack as per the time and place of their convenience. Instead as a society we started nagging and forcing our forces to react when he enemy was at his most alertness.

              We sit in cozy comfort of our safe bedrooms, kitchens and dining rooms, and yell for war and revenge, because it’s not us who has to pay a price for it, atleast through blood and life.  

             

              I am not against todays military strikes.  But I believe that the leadership of our country must decide when, where and how to retaliate or engage in an armed confrontation with an enemy, on the basis of military prudence and not on the basis of public demand and popular Euphoria.

Well today, there seems to be convergence between what public wanted, and what the armed forces suggested. But what if there is divergence tomorrow? What if there is a time in future when military warcraft suggests for restrain, while the war mongering public yells for action? What if leadership of that day decides to go by public mood while  ignoring strategic wisdom ?

4)      Presence of Single Majority Party with Absolute Majority having strong Centralised leadership

 History will give many examples to illustrate that strong leaders are more trigger friendly, partly because they the ability to lead in a war as they don’t have to worry about petty coalition issues. And partly because it helps them cast themselves as strong leaders.

Strong leaders make wars, and wars make strong leaders

Oher congenial conditions.

5)      Strengthened and more robust international relations today, as work of last 4 years in particular, and two decades in general.

6)      Changing Geo-Political scenario

During its Afgan war, Pakistan was seen as an ally by USA. around the same time when India’s parliament was attacked, US tried very hard to compel India to not go for any offensive strikes against Pakistan, so that Pakistan doesn’t have to dilute its forced on its Afgan Border.  US didn’t want India.  But todays time are different. America under Trump has exhibited its harsh take on Pakistan.

7)      Crumbling economy of Pakistan, and a robust and growing economy of India.

This created a vantage point for India, where it knows it would be difficult for Pakistan to escalate the conflict.

8)      Critical School

This is not my take. But for academic reasons only I am listing here. Thinkers belonging to Critical School in Political Sociology believe that the political leadership in a country, when fails to satisfy the needs of its people,  sgoes for military action to divert the attention of its people.  

Implications of the air strikes.

Besides having s significant reduction in capacity build of terrorist organisations, Todays strikes are expected to -

I)                    Create stronger national identity. Caste and parochial identities would recede , at least temporarily.

II)                   Get more international support.  First, India has demonstrated itself as a decisive power which doesn’t gives empty rhetorical warnings, but also follows them with real firepower. Secondly, it shows that terrorism is not a minor problem for India.

III)                 Invoking Weberian thoughts . Conversion of legal rational authority to charismatic authority. The Prime Minister will be projected as a hero, as a saviour and as person with extra ordinary capability.